Poster: "Regional Trend Shifts in Ground Temperature Time Series"

Global reconstructions of Earth's mean surface temperature consistently reveal a warming trend beginning around 1975. However, regional temperature variations display complex, heterogeneous patterns that require deeper exploration. Understanding local climate shifts is critical for effective adaptation in agriculture, water management, infrastructure, etc.

This study aims to identify periods of intensified climate change By analyzing change points in regional warming trends. We analyze empirical mean daily temperature data to track warming trends across the whole land global grid. By removing seasonal cycles, we capture temperature anomalies that reveal significant regional warming variations, with standard deviations of 4-6K depending on location. We fit dual-linear slopes with change points to each grid point to capture shifts in warming trends. This approach produces global maps indicating the timing and magnitude of trend changes, highlighting regions where local warming has intensified.

Through this approach, we identify regions where warming accelerates, as well as areas where it decelerates, giving us a clearer picture of local climate change impacts. Our findings suggest that many grid points show a marked increase in warming around 1980 ± 10 years, raising questions about potential tipping points within the climate system.