Precipitation extreme probabilities and weather phenomena

Precipitation probability distributions in the moderate-to-extreme intensity range tend to follow a form that can be characterized by a precipitation scale. Previous work has shown this behavior to arise naturally in theoretical prototypes, and that estimating the scale in observations and model output can be useful in quantifying leading aspects of changes with global warming, regional and seasonal variations. Here we overview factors that contribute to this. First, the relationship between probability distributions for the total precipitation and contributions to this separated by weather phenomenon such as atmospheric rivers (ARs), mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), low-pressure systems (LPSs), fronts (FTs), and their co-occurrences. Across regions and seasons, the probability distributions and their characteristic precipitation scales in the moderate-to-extreme intensity range change in a way that is simpler than initially expected. Precipitation scales for leading combinations of these weather phenomena are often more similar than anticipated. Second, we attempt to interpret this in terms of the combination of theoretical prototypes, atmospheric dynamics and frequent involvement of deep convection and/or mesoscale convective systems in the extreme intensity range. Finally, we examine the relationship to environmental factors, both observationally and with a new type of convective entity model.