Alternative procedure to calculate the basic reproduction number
POSTER
Abstract
To control and manage the different waves of an endemic or epidemic disease, it is useful to know how quickly the contagious disease spreads. Two dimensionless numbers the basic (Ro) and effective (Re) reproduction numbers, provide such information. Furthermore, compartmental models are frequently employed in epidemiology to mimic infectious-disease dynamics. A review of the literature indicates that the next-generation matrix (NGM) method is the only approach used to obtain an analytical expression for the basic reproduction number (Ro). In this study, we aim to demonstrate a simpler, non-trivial procedure for calculating Ro in a closed form. The rationale for this undertaking is threefold. First, it provides an independent procedure to obtain the analytical value of Ro. Second, the proposed alternative procedure uses basic algebra, whereas the standard method (NGM) requires linear algebra. Third, the alternative method can be used to easily explain why Ro >1, implies an endemic disease. Finally, as an application we estimate the Ro and Re values for Puerto Rico during the 2020 pandemic.
Publication: Alternative procedure to calculate the basic reproduction number, submitted to the Journal of Mathematical Education in Science and Technology (2022)
Presenters
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Ernesto P Esteban
University of Puerto Rico at Humacao
Authors
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Ernesto P Esteban
University of Puerto Rico at Humacao
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Lusmeralis Almodovar-Abreu
University of Puerto Rico-Humacao