Feedback-enabled transient growth can trigger climate tipping points

We study the mitigation of climate tipping point transitions using an energy balance model. The evolution of the global mean surface temperature is coupled with the CO2 concentration through the green house effect. We model the CO2 concentration with a stochastic delay differential equation (SDDE), accounting for various carbon emission and capture scenarios. The resulting coupled system of SDDEs exhibits a transient growth of CO2 concentration which may result in a drastic surface temperature increase of six degrees Celsius, even if the concentration decays asymptotically. In addition, we derive a rigorous upper bound for the CO2 evolution which quantifies its transient and asymptotic growths, and provides sufficient conditions for evading this climate tipping point. Combining this upper bound with Monte Carlo simulations of the stochastic climate model, we investigate the emission reduction and carbon capture scenarios that would avert the tipping point.