Global Implications of Russia's Re-Invasion of Ukraine for Nuclear Nonproliferation, Arms Control, and Disarmament Efforts

Now a year after Russian President Vladimir Putin re-invaded Ukraine in February 2022, it has become abundantly clear that the nuclear shadow that looms over the Russo-Ukrainian War is there to stay. While this shadow is darkest over Ukraine, it has an omnipresent yet visceral presence across the Euro-Atlantic region and the entire world. The ensuing global conversation on the prospects of nuclear war has enabled both proponents and opponents of these weapons systems in unique ways, influencing public opinion on how their respective governments should react to Russia's nuclear sabre-rattling in varied directions. In short, sharpened attention towards nuclear weapons has resulted in different takes on their utility. While it is difficult to predict how the war will shape global nuclear politics and the value given to these weapons in the long term, the last year alone has proven that the conflict has already had – and will continue to have – far-ranging and deep implications on nuclear non-proliferation, arms control, and disarmament efforts. This lecture will chart the wider nuclear context in which the first year of the Russo-Ukrainian War has taken place, identifying both negative trends in each of these three areas as well as potential opportunities for progress. This talk is co-sponsored by the University of Illinois Physics Department.