The Growing Nuclear Danger and Options for Stepping Back from the Brink

Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine and threats of nuclear weapons use have reawakened the world to the dangers of nuclear war and severely complicated progress to negotiate new risk reduction and arms control measures.

In August 2022, U.S. President Joe Biden noted, “Even at the height of the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union were able to work together to uphold our shared responsibility to ensure strategic stability." He said that his administration "is ready to expeditiously negotiate a new arms control framework" to replace the only remaining bilateral arms control agreement, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, which expires in early 2026.

At the same time, China is responding to a more adversarial relationship with the United States by moving quickly fortify its smaller but still deadly arsenal. There are currently no nuclear risk reduction or arms control talks between leaders from Washington and Beijing.

All three countries are pursuing modernization programs to sustain and upgrade their nuclear arsenals. Without the negotiation of a new U.S.-Russian nuclear arms control framework, and the initiation of a strategic risk reduction dialogue with China, the risk of nuclear arms racing, and nuclear conflict will increase.

This presentation will provide an up-to-date assessment of the nuclear risk dimensions of the conflict in Ukraine and outline potential policy and negiating options for nuclear risk reduction and arms control agreements involving the United States, Russia, and China in today's fraught geopolitical environment.