Photovoltaics at Multi-Terawatt Scale: Trajectories and Challenges on the Path to 2050

Global installed photovoltaic (PV) capacity has reached the milestone of 1 TW, marking the first step in what must be a continuing rapid growth to significant multi-TW scale to achieve the world’s greenhouse gas reduction goals. Studies applying increasingly sophisticated modeling from multiple sources predict that PV can and will provide a majority of global electricity generation and even total energy contribution in a future sustainable energy economy. In this presentation, we will review recent growth rates and predictions for PV and identify timely and critical choices to be made in setting research, manufacturing and deployment targets that will determine the global impact of PV by 2050.



The reinforcing triad of decreasing cost, increasing performance and increasing reliability that led to sustained rapid growth of PV over the past decade is now driving a new reinforcing cycle of renewable generation, sector coupling, and electrification. Similar potential exists for coupling renewable generation, carbon-free fuels, and transformation of the industrial sector. A majority role for PV will create new opportunities and challenges for performance and reliability, global manufacturing and supply chains, and sustainability and circularity. This presentation will highlight recent work from groups around the world focusing on technology innovation, PV growth trajectories, modeling of 100% renewable energy systems, trends in embedded energy and carbon in PV manufacturing, advances in PV reliability, and analysis for PV in the circular economy.