Competition for fluctuating resources reproduces statistics of species abundance over time across wide-ranging microbiotas

Across diverse microbiotas, species abundances vary in time with distinctive statistical behaviors that appear to generalize across hosts, but the origins and implications of these patterns remain unclear. Here, we show that many of these patterns can be quantitatively recapitulated by a simple class of consumer-resource models, in which the metabolic capabilities of different species are randomly drawn from a common statistical ensemble. Our coarse-grained model parametrizes the consumer-resource properties of a community using only a small number of macroscopic parameters, including the total number of resources, typical resource fluctuations over time, and the average overlap in resource-consumption profiles across species. We elucidate how variation in these parameters affects various time series statistics, enabling the estimation of macroscopic parameters and their comparison across wide-ranging microbiotas, including the human gut, saliva, and vagina, as well as mouse gut and rice. The successful recapitulation of time series statistics across microbiotas suggests that resource competition may be a dominant driver of community dynamics. Our work unifies numerous time series patterns under one model, clarifies their origins, and provides a framework to infer parameters of effective resource competition from longitudinal studies of microbial communities.