A Multi-dimensional Risk-based Optimization of a Fusion Pilot Plant

A multi-dimensional optimization study of a fusion pilot plant (FPP) is conducted to determine the sensitivity of the optimized design point to the risk assessment of each operational constraint. The GA Systems Code, an integrated 1D tokamak power plant optimization tool, is used to explore the design space of net-electric FPP facilities based on the steady-state tokamak magnetic confinement scheme. Plant optimization is driven by minimizing direct capital cost, with a net-electric target of 200MW(e). A comprehensive list of design parameters and operational constraints is identified, with each parameter assigned a range of risk values. These design parameters encompass fusion technology (e.g. superconducting magnets, blanket breeding material), plasma operation (e.g. proximity to ideal-wall MHD stability limits, maximum bootstrap current fraction), and power conversion (e.g. thermal cycle efficiency, balance of plant power requirements). The space of optimized FPP solutions is presented as a function of associated risk, with the finding that certain design parameters have an outsized impact on facility capital cost. A risk-benefit analysis is presented to inform a down-selection of FPP design parameters, and inform future design efforts.