Quantifying Structural Reliability in Off-Shore Wind Turbines: Sampling, Instanton, and Sensitivity Analysis

This study focuses on assessing the structural reliability of off-shore wind turbines using the Betti model [1], a reduced-order approximation of the turbine’s dynamic response to stochastic wind and wave perturbations. Our primary objective is to use the computational efficiency of the reduced- order model to analyze the mechanical stress variability in different turbine components (ropes, tower, and blades) by investigating its probability distribution. We employ direct sampling of typical configurations and the instanton approach from statistical mechanics to identify extreme deviations. Additionally, we explore sensitivity of the bulk and tail regions of the stress probability distribution to the turbulence intensity and turbine control strategies. The findings from this research provide valuable insights into enhancing the structural reliability of off-shore wind turbines and optimizing their operational strategies.

[1] Giulio Betti, Marcello Farina, Giuseppe A. Guagliardi, Andrea Marzorati, and Riccardo Scattolini. Development of a Control-Oriented Model of Floating Wind Turbines. IEEE Transactions on Control Systems Technology, 22(1):69–82, January 2014.