Attracting structures in volcanic ash transport

Volcanic eruptions and ash clouds are a natural hazard that poses direct threats to aviation safety. They may also affect human and ecosystem health. Many transport and dispersion models have been developed to forecast trajectories of volcanic ash clouds, as well as to plan safety measures. Predictions based on these models are heavily dependent on initial parameters of ash clouds, e.g., location, height, particle size and density distribution, water vs. ash content, etc. However, these initial parameters are usually difficult to determine, leading to possible inaccurate predictions of ash clouds trajectories. In this study, a dynamical systems approach is combined with volcanic ash transport models to help improve prediction. A type of attracting structures in volcanic ash transport is identified. These structures act as attractors in volcanic ash transport, and they are independent of initial parameters of specific volcanic eruptions. The attracting structures are associated with hazard zones with high concentrations of volcanic ash. And the prediction in hazard maps can be used to plan flight route diversions and ground evacuations.