Physics Influence on Nuclear Weapons Policy

Many results from physics research are relevant for the development of public policies, but it can be difficult to assess the direct influence of scientific results on the policy creation process. We study the impact of independent scientific research on the U.S.’s annual military budget (the National Defense Authorization Act) and analyze citations of scientific results relevant to U.S. nuclear weapons policy. We focus on citations of research on nuclear winter and other environmental impacts of nuclear war. Such research has been carried out by physicists, meteorologists, and climate scientists since the 1980s and seems to have influenced historical nuclear arms reduction policies. We present our findings on recent and ongoing studies of such impacts of nuclear war, including by the National Academies of Science, and the prospects for such research to influence U.S. nuclear weapons policy in the future.