Probing Correlations in the Binary Black Hole Population with Flexible Models

The astrophysical formation channels of binary black hole systems predict correlations between their mass, spin, and redshift distributions, which can be probed with gravitational-wave observations. Population-level analysis of the latest LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA catalog of binary black hole mergers has identified evidence for such correlations assuming linear evolution of the mean and width of the effective spin distribution as a function of the binary mass ratio and merger redshift. However, the complex astrophysical processes at play in compact binary formation do not necessarily predict linear relationships between the distributions of these parameters. In this work, we relax the assumption of linearity and instead search for correlations using a more flexible cubic spline model. Our results suggest a nonlinear correlation between the width of the effective spin distribution and redshift. We also show that the LIGO-Virgo-Kagra collaborations could provide convincing Bayesian evidence for nonlinear correlations by the end of the fourth observing run, O4. This highlights the valuable role of flexible models in population analyses of compact-object binaries in the era of growing catalogs.