Advances in Earth Observation Capabilities and their Impact on Nuclear Stability

Miniaturization of technology and cheaper space launches coupled with increased military and civilian demand for information are driving a revolution in space-based Earth observation capabilities. Constellations of commercial and national operated imaging satellites are already providing imagery of the surface with a sub-daily frequency. In the near future, swarms of observation satellites could provide enough data to establish an environment with persistent, high-resolution and multispectral coverage of the surface. This data will be delivered in real-time and analyzed by artificial intelligence algorithms able to autonomously and automatically process it to monitor large areas and detect and track ground activity. In a future driven by technological change but possibly without effective arms control treaties to manage the nuclear competition, increased overhead transparency may instigate a destabilizing nuclear arms race. Alternatively - if nuclear weapon states accept the conditions of increased visibility and establish norms where this does not fuel instability - new capabilities will provide more predictability to their relationships, and could facilitate a new generation of arms control.