Reconstructing Population Exposure from Past Nuclear Weapon Tests

Over five hundred atmospheric nuclear tests were conducted between 1945 and 1980 to support the development of nuclear weapons worldwide, often exposing local populations to radioactive fallout and leading to possible adverse health effects, including increased risks of developing radiation-induced cancers. While the health effects of such exposures have been recognized, their full extent is still disputed. Many atmospheric tests were conducted amid poor meteorological conditions and led to significant fallout hundreds of miles away. Today, there is still no global map of radioactive contamination, exposed communities, and impacted ecosystems due to fallout from nuclear weapon testing. This talk discusses how combining current understanding of nuclear weapon explosions, modern atmospheric transport simulation techniques, and archival research permits an independent re-evaluation of the radiological consequences of past nuclear tests with potentially significant implications for compensation and remediation. As an example, it discusses the results of a two-year study on the radiological consequences of French atmospheric nuclear testing in the Pacific, involving extensive atmospheric transport simulations of fallout. The study found that 90% of the French Polynesian population living near the test site at the time of atmospheric testing could have received doses greater than current compensation threshold under French law. These results led French President Emmanuel Macron to publicly acknowledge that France had a debt towards French Polynesia, to call for the improvement of victims' compensation, and for the opening of "all" related government archives.