U.S.-Russian Nuclear Arms Control Prospects Three Years Before New START's Expiration

The prospect for a U.S.-Russian nuclear arms control arrangement to supersede the 2010 New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) faced tough odds prior to Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine about a year ago. The war has necessitated, to say the least, a re-assessment of what might be feasible for Washington and Moscow to achieve in the now three years remaining before New START expires in February 2026. This presentation will describe the state of U.S.-Russian arms control in the few years leading up to Russia's invasion of Ukraine as well as the effects of the war on existing and future arms control – to include an overview of New START implementation and the longstanding but paused U.S.-Russian bilateral strategic stability dialogue. This presentation will also identify the respective priorities in the U.S. and Russian arms control agendas, including tactical nuclear weapons, missile defense, China's nuclear arsenal, as well as suggest a potential course towards a new U.S.-Russian nuclear arms control arrangement.